Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
This is the toughest game of the week to predict just because we don’t know what kind of shape Aaron Rodgers is going to be in. Rodgers came back in the second half last week after sustaining a knee injury and led the Packers back from down 20 to win the game, but he barely practiced at all this week and the oddsmakers are not buying that he will be at full strength and make it through the whole game, hence why the Packers have opened as 2.5 point home underdogs. That’s tied for the most points the Packers have gotten in a home regular season game with Aaron Rodgers under center since 2009, as the Packers are a ridiculous 33-6 at Lambeau since 2012 in regular season games Rodgers starts and finishes.
Of course, their opponents this week have something to do with the line too, as they face a Minnesota team that is one of the best in the NFC. Making matters even worse for Rodgers, the Vikings have a tremendous pass rush and were the team that essentially ended his season with a broken collarbone last season. They would be a tough matchup even with a healthy Rodgers, but I would have this line at Green Bay -3.5 if Rodgers was fully healthy, so we’re getting 6 points of line value to compensate for Rodgers’ uncertainty. Given that, I’m going to take the Packers this week, but I can’t take them with any confidence.
Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 23
Pick against the spread: Green Bay +2.5