Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Last week, the Colts were 5.5 point underdogs in Washington. They ended up winning that game 21-9, and, as a result, they are now only 6.5 point underdogs in Philadelphia, even though the Eagles are significantly more talented than the Redskins and are getting Carson Wentz back from his ACL tear this week. The Colts outplayed a solid Redskins team last week, but the game was closer than the final score. The Redskins won the first down battle 20 to 17 and the Colts only had 3 scoring drives, but they were 3 for 3 converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Redskins were 0-2 and had to settle for 4 field goal attempts on the day (including a miss).
This line suggests the Colts are only 3.5 points worse than the Eagles, so I think this line is too short. The Colts look better now than they did two weeks ago, with Andrew Luck clearly healthy under center and the emergence of second round rookie linebacker Darius Leonard on defense, but they still have one of the worst rosters outside of the quarterback position in the league, especially with the injuries they currently have: left tackle Anthony Castonzo, defensive tackle Denico Autry, cornerback Quincy Wilson, tight end Jack Doyle, and running back Marlon Mack.
The Eagles aren’t healthy either, with wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace, running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles, and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan all sidelined, but getting Wentz back could easily push this team back to their 2017 form in a hurry. They weren’t healthy last season either, with Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks injured, both of whom have returned, but they still were the top team in the NFC, which they should compete to be again in 2018. They should beat a mediocre AFC team by more than a touchdown. If Wentz was a little bit more of a sure thing in his first game back, this would be my Pick of the Week, but there’s enough line value here even if Wentz is at less than his best.
Philadelphia Eagles 31 Indianapolis Colts 20
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5