Green Bay Packers (1-0-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

The Redskins lost 21-9 at home to the Colts last week, but that game was closer than the final score. The Redskins won the first down battle 20 to 17 and the Colts only had 3 scoring drives, but they were 3 for 3 converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Redskins were 0 for 2 and had to settle for 4 field goal attempts on the day (including a miss). The previous week, the Redskins were dominant in a week 1 road victory over the Arizona Cardinals, picking up 30 first downs and winning the first down rate battle by 14.59% in a 24-6 victory. Overall, they still rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. Much healthier than a year ago, the Redskins are a solid team that should not be taken lightly, even after the result of last week’s game.

The Packers come into Washington as 3 point favorites, following their tie last week against the Minnesota Vikings. If Aaron Rodgers wasn’t dealing with an injury, this line might be appropriate, but he’s not 100% and could get knocked out of the game if he worsens the injury. I have this line calculated at Washington -1, so we’re getting good line value with +3. I don’t want to bet too heavily against Aaron Rodgers, but the Redskins will be a tough test for him on the road, given his injury situation.

Washington Redskins 30 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Medium