Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)

This line was Baltimore -1 a week ago, but it has since shifted to Baltimore -3, a fairly significant line movement, considering about 1 out of 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. That’s because the Ravens won in Pittsburgh last week, but the Steelers have been an underwhelming team all year and were not nearly as good as their record last season either. Just 5 of their 14 wins over the past 2 seasons have come by more than 7 points, including just 2 since the midpoint of last season, a span of 13 games.

The Ravens are overrated coming off of that win, as many now regard them as a contender in the AFC. They are 3-1, but have yet to beat a top level team and most of their wins last season came against backup quarterbacks. They get cornerback Jimmy Smith back from suspension this week, but key defensive lineman Michael Pierce is highly questionable as he continues to deal with a foot injury he suffered a few weeks ago.

The Ravens a solid team, but they shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against a quality Browns team. The Browns lost last week in Oakland, but they basically had a win taken off the board by an overturned first down that did not look conclusive. If not for that and some blunders in the kicking game early in the season, the Browns could actually be 4-0 right now or at least 3-1. They continue to be underrated because they’re the Browns, but they’re much better quarterbacked this season and have a good chance to win this one straight up at home.

Cleveland Browns 19 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: Medium