Houston Texans (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
The Jaguars got off to a great start to the season, building on an AFC Championship appearance last year with a 2-0 start, including an impressive win over the Patriots, who eliminated them in the post-season last year. However, since that win the Jaguars have sputtered, losing 3 of 4 games, including their last 2 by a combined 49 points. Losing on the road in Kansas City wasn’t exactly a surprise, but the Jaguars were then dominated by a middle of the road Cowboys team last week.
Many point to the absence of running back Leonard Fournette, who has had just 20 carries in 2 games this season, while dealing with lingering hamstring injuries, but the Jaguars’ offense didn’t miss much of a beat without Fournette went he was hurt last season and the running game hasn’t really been the problem for the Jaguars this season, as backup running back TJ Yeldon has averaged 4.46 yards per carry on 67 carries. The Jaguars were also without Fournette in their game against New England, although that Patriots team was less than 100% with several key absences.
The bigger issue has been the declining play of quarterback Blake Bortles, who remains a highly inconsistent starting quarterback. Bortles has a 99.8 QB rating in the Jaguars 3 wins, but a 63.2 QB rating in their 3 losses and has struggled mightily in recent weeks after a hot start. The “real” Blake Bortles is probably somewhere right in the middle of what he’s been in their wins and what he’s been in their losses this season, but he’s a very frustrating quarterback to predict on a week-to-week basis. Assuming an average Bortles performance this week, I have this line calculated at Jacksonville -4, which is right about where this line is anyway, so I have no desire to bet either side in this one. For pick ‘em purposes, I would take the Texans, who have played a lot of close games this year (all 6 decided by 7 points or fewer), but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Houston Texans 16
Pick against the spread: Houston +4.5