New York Giants (1-5) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)

When this line opened at Atlanta -6 earlier this week, I was considering a bet on the Giants. The Giants were blown out on national television last week on Thursday Night Football against the Eagles, which is probably why the line opened so high, but playing a good team like the Eagles on a short week is very tough, so I didn’t hold that against them too much. On top of that, the rest of the Giants’ losses have been close and the Falcons shouldn’t be favored by 6 points against anyone other than the Bills, given that their injury plagued defense can’t stop anyone.

Unfortunately, the line has since shifted all the way down to 4, so we’ve lost a lot of line value. The Falcons also are expected to get talented defensive tackle Grady Jarrett back from a two game absence, which gives their defense a boost. I’m still taking the Giants because I expect this to be a close game and I expect a much better effort from the Giants with extra time to rest and prepare, but this is a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 30 New York Giants 27

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: None