Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)
The Bengals got off to a great start to the season, but the injuries have piled up for them and they are not nearly the same team anymore. All in all, they are missing tight ends Tyler Eifert and Tyler Kroft, running back Giovani Bernard, wide receiver John Ross, center Billy Price, defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow, linebackers Vontaze Burfict and Nick Vigil, and cornerback Darqueze Dennard. That being said, we are not getting good line value betting against them this week, as mere 4 point home favorites against the Buccaneers. After the Bengals got blown out on national television in Kansas City last week, it’s not exactly a secret that they aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the year.
Teams actually tend to play pretty well after blowout losses, going 55-34 ATS since 2002 after a loss of 35 points or more, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot, and the Bengals could be all three this week. With that in mind, I’m actually taking the Bengals this week, as the Buccaneers have their own injury issues. They are missing defensive end Vinny Curry, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, and linebacker Kwon Alexander, three of their best defensive players, from a defense that was not any good to begin with, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 43.83% rate on the season, 31st in the NFL. This is a no confidence pick, but the Bengals have a good chance to bounce back at home against a mediocre opponent.
Cincinnati Bengals 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -4