Los Angeles Rams (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

I’ve bet on the Saints every week since week 3, after they got off to one of their typical slow starts (2-12 ATS in the first 2 games of the season since 2012, 55-38 ATS after week 2), and they’ve covered in all 5 games, after failing to cover in their first two. That being said, it’s a lot harder being confident in the Saints this week, as 1.5 point home underdogs against the undefeated Rams. I have this line calculated at New Orleans -2, but any line value within the 3s is not terribly valuable, given how few games are decided by 3 points or fewer.

The Saints are an obvious top-5 team this year and could easily win this game at home, but the Rams are also a step up in class and it’s hard to be confident betting against them in a game they basically just have to win to cover, especially with talented slot receiver Cooper Kupp returning from a two game absence. I’m taking the Saints, who are in a great spot with only a trip to Cincinnati on deck after arguably their biggest game of the season this week (home underdogs are 23-9 ATS since 2014 before being road favorites), but this is a low confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 26 Los Angeles Rams 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +1.5

Confidence: Low