Saints

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-9) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)

The Saints have been among the most injury plagued teams in the league this season. They seemed to be getting healthier, with feature back Alvin Kamara (2 games missed), starting wide receivers Jarvis Landry (5 games missed) and Chris Olave (1 game missed), starting offensive linemen Andrus Peat (4 games missed) and James Hurst (1 game missed), stud edge defenders Cameron Jordan (1 game missed) and Marcus Davenport (2 games missed), starting safety Marcus Maye (4 games missed), talented linebacker Pete Werner (4 games missed), starting center Erik McCoy (4 games missed) all playing last week after missing significant time earlier in the season, but now they seem to be going in the opposite direction, with Werner, Olave, and Landry all out this week.

If the Saints were healthier, I would have had my eye on them as a potential bet this week, but without those three key players, it’s hard to be confident in them as 3-point road underdogs in Cleveland against the Browns. In fact, my calculated line is right at Cleveland -3, with my numbers saying the Browns actually have a slightly better chance to cover this spread than their opponents. With that in mind, I am going to take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week and a push is a good possibility, as the single most likely outcome of this game is the Browns winning by a field goal at home, with about 1 in 6 games decided by exactly a field goal.

Cleveland Browns 20 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-8) at New Orleans Saints (4-9)

The Falcons have overachieved through the first 13 games of the season, especially on offense, where they rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, but they are switching quarterbacks from capable veteran Marcus Mariota to unproven rookie Desmond Ritter, to evaluate the young quarterback in what is largely a lost season even with a solid offense. Mariota wasn’t playing at that high of a level, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see the Falcons’ offense decline significantly with Ritter in the lineup, which would expose the problems on the rest of this team in a big way.

The Saints, meanwhile, are just 4-9, but their biggest problem has been the turnover margin (-12, 2nd worst in the league), which is not predictive week-to-week, and they rank 13th in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive week-to-week. They’ve also been getting significantly healthier in recent weeks and are now as healthy as they’ve been almost all season coming out of their bye week, after being one of the most injury plagued teams in the league thus far this season.

In total, feature back Alvin Kamara (2 games missed), starting wide receivers Jarvis Landry (5 games missed) and Chris Olave (1 game missed), starting offensive linemen Andrus Peat (4 games missed) and James Hurst (1 game missed), stud edge defenders Cameron Jordan (1 game missed) and Marcus Davenport (2 games missed), and talented safety Marcus Maye (4 games missed) have all missed time this season and have since returned, while talented linebacker Pete Werner (4 games missed), talented center Erik McCoy (4 games missed), and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (8 games missed) could also return this week.

This line favors the Saints by 4 points at home, but that’s not high enough, with the Saints healthy and the Falcons breaking in a raw rookie quarterback. My calculated line has the Saints favored by 6 and that could increase depending on which injured Saints are able to play. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now, but I could easily end up making an update to this pick before gametime, depending on who actually ends up being active and where this line ultimately settles.

Update: Lattimore remains out, but Werner and McCoy will play, so there is enough here for the Saints to be worth betting at -4.

New Orleans Saints 24 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -4

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Saints are just 4-8, but they’ve played better than their record suggests, ranking 15th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Their biggest problem has been the turnover margin, with a league worst -14, but turnover margins tend to be highly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In fact, when a team faces an opponent with a turnover margin that is at least 15 points better than theirs (-14 vs. +2 for Tampa Bay), the team with the significantly worse turnover margin entering the game covers the spread at a 54.1% rate.

The Saints are also getting healthier, after being among the most injury affected teams in the league to begin the season. They still remain without top wide receiver Michael Thomas (9 games missed) and talented starting center Erik McCoy (3 games missed), but feature back Alvin Kamara (2 games missed), starting wide receivers Jarvis Landry (5 games missed) and Chris Olave (1 game missed), starting offensive linemen Andrus Peat (4 games missed) and James Hurst (1 game missed), stud edge defenders Cameron Jordan (1 game missed) and Marcus Davenport (2 games missed), as well as talented safety Marcus Maye (4 games missed) have all missed time this season and have since returned, while talented linebacker Pete Werner (3 games missed) and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (7 games missed) could also return this week.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, seem to be going in the opposite direction injury wise, missing stud right tackle Tristan Wirfs for the first time this season, while their defense remains without top edge defender Shaq Barrett and will likely also be without their two starting safeties Mike Edwards and Antoine Winfield, which is especially a big deal because the latter is one of the best players in the league at his position. My roster rankings have the Buccaneers just a half point better than the Saints, given the current state of both teams, meaning they should be no more than field goal favorites in this game, if not favorites of less than a field goal.

This line is only 3.5, which might not seem like a big deal, but with 1 in 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer and 1 in 6 games decided by 3 points exactly, getting this line on the other side of three is very significant, especially since the Buccaneers probably deserve to be favored by less than a field goal. I see this being a relatively close game, even if the Buccaneers can win, with the two most likely outcomes being either team winning by exactly a field goal, both of which would cover this spread, so the Saints are worth a bet at +3.5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

The 49ers are just 6-4, but there’s an argument to be made that they’re the best team in the NFC and they look like one of the top few Super Bowl contenders overall. They rank 5th in both point differential (+63) and schedule adjusted efficiency (about five points above average) and are arguably even better than that, as they are healthier and more talented than they were earlier in the season. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three have returned, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense is also healthier now than a few weeks ago, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action recently.

The 49ers showed this on Monday Night Football last week, demolishing the Cardinals by a final score of 38-10 in one of the most lopsided games of the season (+9.82% first down rate, +2.37 yards per play), and that tends to carry over into the next week, with teams covering the spread at a 60.0% rate the week after winning by 21 points or more on Monday Night Football. However, we’re not really getting line value with the 49ers as 9.5-point home favorites over the Saints, as the public and the oddsmakers seem to understand that the 49ers are significantly better than their record.

If anything, the Saints are the team that is being a little underrated here, as they are healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks, with key players like Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, and Marshon Lattimore seeming likely to return on defense, and, even with all of their injuries, they have played better than their record, ranking 16th in schedule adjusted efficiency, with their biggest problem being their league worst -12 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. My calculated line actually gives us a little line value with the visitor, with the 49ers favored by 7.5 points. That’s not nearly enough line value to take the Saints with any confidence though and, with the 49ers being in a significantly better spot, I would still take them for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-6)

Both of these teams are 3-6 and have serious injury problems, among the worst in the league. The Rams will get quarterback Matt Stafford back from a one-game absence with a concussion, but he’ll return to a team that lost arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Cooper Kupp to injury and that is without a trio of starting offensive linemen, left tackle Joe Noteboom, left guard David Edwards, and center Brian Allen from what was already a shaky offensive line entering the season. The Rams’ defense still remains an above average unit, but the absence of their best offensive player and three key offensive linemen has left their offense well below average.

The Saints, meanwhile, have injury problems on both sides of the ball. On offense, they will be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting left tackle James Hurst, and starting center Erik McCoy, while their defense will be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, talented starting linebacker Pete Werner, and their stud edge defender duo of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. The Saints have a one-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency and a one-point edge in my roster rankings, but they’re also field goal favorites at home, which is about what they should be. My numbers suggest the Saints are slightly more likely to cover at this number, but this is a no confidence pick and a push is a likely outcome, given that one in six games are decided by exactly three points.

New Orleans Saints 20 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

These two teams have similar records, but the Saints have a -15 point differential, despite a -10 turnover margin, while the Steelers have a -77 point differential, with a -4 turnover margin. That suggests the Saints have played much better to this point this season, but the Steelers have also faced a much tougher schedule, one of the toughest in the league and the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency is not that wide, with the Saints ranking 15th, about even, and the Steelers ranking 18th, about 1.5 points below average.

The Steelers also are the healthier team this week, with reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt set to make his return for the first time since week one, while the Saints remain without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting guard Andrus Peat, and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore and now will be without starting safety Marcus Maye, starting linebacker Pete Werner, and starting center Erik McCoy. The Saints will get starting wide receiver Jarvis Landry back this week, but they’re still missing a lot of talent.

With the injury situation both teams are in, I have these two teams about even, but this line favors the Saints on the road by a point and a half. My calculated line has the Steelers as the ones who should be slight favorites, so we’re getting at least some line value with them. It’s not quite enough for them to be worth betting against the spread, but the money line is a good value at +105 and the Steelers are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 New Orleans Saints 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +1.5

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)

The Ravens are 5-3 and they could easily be even better than that, blowing big leads in all three of their losses and ranking 2nd in time leading, only behind the undefeated Eagles. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Ravens rank 3rd, about 7 points above average, and my roster rankings have them around the same, about 7.5 points above average. Despite that, they are only favored by 2.5 points on the road in New Orleans.

The Saints are better than their 3-5 record, having a -1 point differential despite a -9 turnover margin and ranking 14th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about a half point above average, but we’re still getting great line value with the Ravens in a game in which they basically just have to win to cover, with less than 10% of games being decided by two points or fewer. My calculated line has them favored by 4.5, which is a significant difference, given that 1 in 5 games are decided by 3-4 points. That assumes Ravens stud tight end Mark Andrews is going to play, which is not a guarantee right now, but we should know that before gametime. I’m leaving this as a low confidence pick for now, but I will increase this to medium confidence if and when we know Andrews is playing.

Baltimore Ravens 24 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -2.5

Confidence: Low

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)

It’s unfortunate that these teams are playing this week, as I think both are underrated and significantly better than their record. The Saints are 2-5, but their primary issue has been the turnover margin, ranking dead last in the NFL at -10, which fortunately for them is not predictive week-to-week. They’re still slightly below average in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 21st, about 1.5 points below average, but that is better than their record would suggest. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 2-4 despite a +13 point differential and rank 11th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points below average.

This line, favoring the Raiders by 1.5 in New Orleans, suggests about a four point difference between these two teams, which is a little much, so we’re getting some line value with the Saints, but it’s not nearly enough to bet on them with any confidence. The money line at +105 is a better value because the Saints should be considered at least 50/50 to win this game, but against the spread this is a low confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 28 Las Vegas Raiders 27 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +1.5

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

Normally I like home favorites in non-divisional Thursday games because teams tend to be at a disadvantage when they travel on a short week to face a relatively unfamiliar opponent, unless they happen to be the significantly better team. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 63.2% rate on Thursdays when both teams are on short rest. However, in this game, we are getting significant value with the visiting Saints, which cancels out the trend that works in the Cardinals’ favor.

Both of these teams are 2-4 and have faced comparable competition, but the Saints have been the noticeably better team, having the slight edge in point differential (-17 vs. -28), despite faring significantly worse in the turnover battle, with the Cardinals at +2 and the Saints at -7. Turnovers are not nearly as predictive week-to-week as yards and first downs and, in terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards per play, the Saints are at -1.83, while the Cardinals are nearly three points worse at -4.72. 

The Saints aren’t healthy, missing a pair of starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, as well as top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, among less important injuries, but the Cardinals are far from healthy either. Top receiver DeAndre Hopkins returns from a 6-game suspension this week, but he re-joins an offense that just lost Marquise Brown, their top receiver in Hopkins absence, as well as a pair of key starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson. 

With Hudson out and Pugh and Brown going down mid-game, it’s no surprise the Cardinals had by far their worst offensive performance of the season last week against the Seahawks. Hopkins’ return this week will help, but the Saints also have a much tougher defense than the Seahawks. With all of the injuries factored in, my roster rankings have the Saints about three points better than the Cardinals, which is in line with the difference between these two teams in overall efficiency.

The Cardinals should have extra homefield advantage on a short week, but this line favors the Cardinals by 2.5, meaning that their homefield advantage would have to be equal to 5.5 points for this line to be appropriate, given the 3-point gap between these two teams. Even on a short week, that homefield advantage is excessive, so the Saints should be the right side in this one. I would need this line to move to a full field goal for the Saints to be worth betting, but if that happens, they would be bettable even in a bad spot. The money line is a good value as well, as the Saints should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +2.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-3)

The Saints are just 2-3, but the turnover margin has been a big problem for them, as they have the worst in the league at -8, which, fortunately for them, is not predictive. In terms of schedule adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are much more predictive, the Saints rank 19th and 7th respectively, so they should be better going forward than their 2-3 record suggests. The Bengals are also better than their record, with their 3 losses coming by a combined 8 points, but they are favored by 2.5 points on the road in this game, even though they are only a half point better than the Saints in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Saints do have some significant injuries, with top wide receiver Michael Thomas and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore both out, which is enough for me to not bet the Saints against the spread unless we’re getting a full field goal, but the Bengals still only rank one point higher in my roster rankings, so we’re getting at least some line value with the Saints, who should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. The money line is also a good value at +130.

Update: +3s are showing up today, so I am going to lock in that bet.

New Orleans Saints 23 Cincinnati Bengals 21 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Medium