Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
The Eagles have been on my underrated list for a few weeks, as I don’t think they’re really that much worse than last season. They are 4-4, but their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points and they rank 3rd in first down rate differential at 5.19%. They are legitimately a few plays away from being 6-2 right now and being talked about as one of the NFC’s contenders. This team will likely make the playoffs because no one is running away with the NFC East and no one in the NFC should want that, as they could easily contend to go back to the Super Bowl.
Unfortunately, we’re not getting a good line with them this week, as this line has shifted from 6 to 7.5 in the past week, crossing the key number of 7. That’s as a result of the Cowboys’ home loss to the Titans and the Cowboys’ loss of linebacker Sean Lee to injury, but the Titans are an underrated team with Marcus Mariota healthy and the Cowboys didn’t miss Lee that much early in the season when he was injured because of the presence of talented young linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch.
I have this line calculated at Philadelphia -10, so we’re still getting some line value with the Eagles, but they’re also not in a great spot with a trip to New Orleans on deck. Favorites of 6+ are just 19-31 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ and the Eagles are 6.5-point underdogs in New Orleans on the early line. The Cowboys, meanwhile, only have a game against the Falcons on deck, so they should be much more focused for this game. The Eagles obviously aren’t going to look past a key divisional game against a hated rival, but they may have some split focus this week, with a game that is much more of a measuring stick for them on deck.
The Cowboys have also played pretty well away from home in recent years, as a result of their national fanbase, going 37-29 ATS since 2010, including 23-17 ATS as road underdogs and 9-6 ATS as divisional road underdogs. They have yet to win away from home this season and could easily lose by double digits in this one, but we’re not getting a good line or a good spot with the Eagles. I’d need this line at least to drop down to an even touchdown to consider betting it.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Dallas Cowboys 13
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7.5