Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-5)
These two teams have similar records, but the Packers have been the better team this season, as the Seahawks have been overly reliant on winning the turnover margin. They are +8 on the season, tied for 3rd best in the NFL, but turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t be able to count on that every week, especially against top level quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers. In the past two weeks, they’ve had an even turnover margin facing Philip Rivers and Jared Goff, after facing a relatively easy slate of quarterbacks to begin the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Packers are significantly ahead, ranking 12th at 1.43%, while the Seahawks rank 22nd at -2.33%.
The Packers are also in the better injury situation. While the Seahawks will once again be without linebacker KJ Wright (as well as injured reserved safety Earl Thomas), the Packers have been a lot better defensively since getting Jaire Alexander back from injury a few weeks ago. Aaron Rodgers is also healthier than he was earlier in the season, while running back Aaron Jones has broken out as their lead back, after being suspended for the first two games of the season. They played arguably their best game of the season last week at home against Miami, winning the first down rate battle by 16.67%, an impressive number even against an underwhelming team like the Dolphins.
This line suggests these two teams are about even, favoring the hometown Seahawks by a field goal, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitoring Packers. The Packers’ 0-4 road record worries me a little, but if you look at those games, they should have won in Detroit, where Mason Crosby melted down and couldn’t hit a kick, and two of those losses came against the Rams and Patriots, two of the better teams in the league, in games the Packers were in late.
I’m more worried about the track record of non-divisional road underdogs on Thursday Night Football (15-34 ATS), as it’s very tough to travel on a short week and face a relatively unfamiliar opponent (unless you have enough of a talent advantage to be favored). I know Rodgers has faced off against the Seahawks a bunch of times, but this is close to a completely remade Seahawks roster, so he won’t benefit from that familiarity factor on a short week. That being said, there’s still too much line value to pass on here with the Packers, who you could argue should be favored by a couple points in this one (making that aforementioned trend less relevant). At the very least, this should be an even line. Both the spread (at +3) and moneyline are worth small bets in this one.
Final Update: I’m staying with a medium confidence pick, but I did discover one stat that should make Packer bettors feel more confident. The Packers are the 18th team to be undefeated at home and winless on the road week 8 or later in the past 30 years. The previous 17 are 9-8 straight up (10-6-1 ATS) in their next road game. It’s a small sample size, but home/road variances tend to be random more than anything, so I wouldn’t expect the Packers to struggle on the road in this one just because they’re 0-4 on the road.
Green Bay Packers 24 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +125
Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3