Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) at New York Giants (2-7)
The Buccaneers lost last week at home to the Redskins, falling to 3-6 on the season, but they’ve been better than their record suggests, as they rank 19th with a +0.15% first down rate. They’ve been killed by the turnover margin, ranking dead last with a -19 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be completely unpredictable on a week-to-week basis. For example, the Buccaneers had a -4 turnover margin in last week’s loss, the biggest reason why they lost despite winning the yardage battle 501-286 and the first down battle 29-15, but, on average, teams with a turnover margin of -4 in a game have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. As a result of that, they obviously perform a lot better on the scoreboard (48.8% winning percentage, 52.5% cover percentage).
The Buccaneers are an underrated team and because of that we are getting good line value with them here as 2.5 point road underdogs in New York against the lowly Giants. They’re also in a much better spot, as the Giants have a key divisional game in Philadelphia next week, while the Buccaneers have arguably their easiest game of the season, at home against the 49ers. Favorites are just 53-89 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. While the Giants could easily overlook the Buccaneers with a much bigger game on defense, the Buccaneers should be fully focused with no upcoming distractions on the schedule.
The Buccaneers’ defensive injuries concern me, as they will be without linebacker Lavonte David and safety Justin Evans in this one, after already being without linebacker Kwon Alexander and defensive end Vinny Curry. The Buccaneers’ defense has been pretty bad even with those players healthy though and I trust the Buccaneers’ talented offense to win a shootout here on the road against one of the worst teams in the league. This would be a bigger play if they were healthier, but Tampa Bay is still worth a bet this week.
Sunday update: +3s have showed up Sunday Morning. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so it’s great to have protection against a New York 3-point win. I’m making this a higher confidence pick as a result.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +125
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3