Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
The Bills have endured some truly terrible quarterback play in recent weeks. Matt Barkley played well in his start before the bye, but prior to that the Bills were a combined 75 of 121 (62.0%) for 676 yards (5.59 YPA), no touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in their previous 3 games, losing all 3 games by a combined 83 points. Barkley likely wouldn’t be able to keep that up for more than a start, but fortunately the Bills get starting quarterback Josh Allen back from injury this week. Allen hasn’t played well this season, but he should be a noticeable upgrade over the street free agents they’ve been starting in his absence. The Bills actually have a solid defense (10th in first down rate allowed) and Allen returning to stabilize the quarterback position should allow their defense to shine more, especially against easier opponents.
The Jaguars qualify as an easier opponent. Their defense hasn’t really been much worse than last season (4th in first down rate allowed), but they haven’t quite been the dominant unit they were last season and their offense has been noticeably worse due to injury. The Jaguars are missing their top-3 left tackles, their top-3 tight ends, their top wide receiver Marqise Lee, and their top offensive lineman center Brandon Linder. A year after finishing 2nd in first down rate differential, the Jaguars rank just 22nd at -2.10%. This line favors the Jaguars on the road by a field goal, but I think this line should be closer to even.
The Jaguars are also in a terrible spot. Not only did they have a crushing last second loss at home last week to the Steelers in what was their best effort in weeks, but they have another big home game against the Colts on deck, so they could easily look past the 3-7 Bills. Road favorites struggle mightily before being home underdogs, going 39-62 ATS since 2008, and the Jaguars are expected to be home underdogs for the Colts next week. The Bills are a smart bet as field goal home underdogs, as they should at least be able to push this week. The money line is also worth a bet at +150, as this game is basically a toss up.
Buffalo Bills 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 Upset Pick +150
Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3