New York Jets (3-8) at Tennessee Titans (5-6)
The Titans have been one of the most unpredictable teams in the league this season, having the 3rd most DVOA variance in the league, only ahead of the Bills (who have started 4 different quarterbacks) and the Titans’ opponents this week, the New York Jets. For that reason, I’m not too excited to bet either side, but the Titans should be able to win this one with ease. They rank just 21st in first down rate differential at -2.25%, but they’ve also faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL, with their opponents combining for a 56% winning percentage.
By contrast, their opponents this week are just 3-8 and are one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 29th in first down rate differential at -5.69%. If the Titans can win by double digits against the Cowboys and Patriots in recent weeks, they should be able to blowout the lowly Jets. However, because both of these teams have been unpredictable, it’s hard to say that with much certainty.
The Titans also have to play again in a few days on Thursday Night Football, which is usually a bad spot for favorites, as they are 55-72 ATS since 2012 before being a Thursday game, but the Titans have another easy game next week, hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, so that kind of cancels that out. Favorites of 7+ are 58-35 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 7+ again. There’s not enough here to confidently take the Titans, but I like their chances of covering this 8-point spread.
Tennessee Titans 24 New York Jets 13
Pick against the spread: Tennessee -8