Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)
The Jaguars pulled off a big home upset victory last week over the Colts, shutting them out in a 6-0 victory as 4.5-point underdogs. It was a reminder that, while their defense hasn’t quite as good as last season, it’s still largely the same personnel. Statistically they’ve still been one of the better units in the league, allowing opponents to pick up first downs at a 32.93% rate, 4th lowest in the NFL. However, I don’t think that win really improves their outlook for the rest of the season.
The Jaguars’ extreme offensive issues were also shown in that game, as the Jaguars failed to get it in the end zone at home against an average at best Indianapolis defense and actually moved the ball at a lower rate (20.37%) than the Colts did (26.76%). The Colts actually had 5 drives in Jacksonville’s territory, but failed to score because of three failed 4th downs, an interception, and time running out at the end of the game.
Cody Kessler didn’t turn it over in his first start, but he has a much lower floor as a starter than Blake Bortles, as he is a very limited downfield thrower who holds the ball for far too long. The Jaguars will be able to run the ball better this week with Leonard Fournette back from suspension, but their offensive line has been decimated by injury and their receiving corps has struggled to get separation, so Kessler isn’t going to get much help from his offensive supporting cast.
Despite the Jaguars’ offensive issues, this line shifted from Jacksonville +6 on the early line last week to +4 this week. That could be in part because the Titans barely squeaked out a victory at home against the Jets as favorites last week, but the Titans played better than the final score suggested, as they managed to win despite throwing a pick six and allowing a blocked punt. The Titans had 22 first downs to 15 for the Jets, winning the first down rate battle by 18.59%, and holding the Jets’ offense to only field goals. The Jets joined the Jaguars as the two teams not to make it inside their opponent’s 10 yard line all game last week.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jaguars were kept from getting deep into opponent’s territory again this week. The Titans’ strong defensive performance last week was no fluke, as they rank 5th in the NFL in first down rate allowed at 33.65%, just one spot behind the Jaguars. Given that, this line is way too low at -4. The Jaguars have also had inconsistent effort this season and might not be as focused on a short week after a big win. It’s a small sample size, but teams are just 4-10 ATS on Thursday Night Football after a divisional home upset win as underdogs of 3+. This is only a medium confidence pick because the Titans have been so inconsistent this season, but I like their chances at home on a short week.
Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 10
Pick against the spread: Tennessee -4