Tennessee Titans (7-6) at New York Giants (5-8)
The Titans began the season with a tough schedule, with 8 of their first 11 games coming against teams that currently have a winning record, but they are right in the middle of a very easy stretch right now and have won back-to-back games against the Jets and Jaguars. The game against the Jets was close, but the Titans won that game despite throwing a pick six and allowing a blocked punt and they won the first down rate battle by 18.59%. They then followed that up with a blowout of the Jaguars in a game in which they won the first down rate battle by 16.99%.
The Giants have been better in recent weeks and they’re not as bad as the Jets or Jaguars, but they are missing a key player with injury on both sides of the ball, wide receiver Odell Beckham and safety Landon Collins, and they are one of the easier teams the Titans have faced this season. Beckham and Collins weren’t missed against a Redskins team they started Mark Sanchez and didn’t try on defense, but this is a much tougher game. The Titans are a little banged up with right tackle Jack Conklin and outside linebacker Brian Orakpo injured, but I still have this line calculated at Tennessee -3, so we’re getting some good line value with them at +1.
The Titans are also in a better spot than the Giants, with another easy game at home against the Redskins on deck, while the Giants have another relatively tough game on deck in Indianapolis, Underdogs are 94-57 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs and, even though the Titans are just 1-point underdogs, the logic stands that they should be a little bit more focused this week, with no upcoming distractions to prepare for. They’re worth a bet this week.
Tennessee Titans 24 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +100
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1