Houston Texans (10-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)

After winning the Super Bowl last year, the Eagles’ 2018 season was derailed by injuries and close losses (6 losses by 7 points or fewer), but they are still very much in the playoff race in the NFC after backup quarterback Nick Foles led them to a big upset victory over the Rams in Los Angeles last week. Foles isn’t an upgrade on Carson Wentz, but Wentz was not at 100% all season and the team really does seem to play harder with a backup quarterback in the lineup, embracing the underdog role.

The Eagles are not underdogs this week, favored by 2 points at home against the Texans, but I would expect them to continue playing hard against a tough opponent with their season on the line. They’re also finally getting some players back from injury, most notably stud every down linebacker Jordan Hicks, who is not listed on the injury report this week, after missing 4 games with a calf injury. We’re not getting enough line value with the Eagles to take them with any confidence, but I think the most likely outcome in this game is a Philadelphia win by a field goal, which would cover this spread.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2

Confidence: None