Denver Broncos (6-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-11)
The Broncos have had a tough year. They started the season with the toughest schedule in the league through 11 games, going 5-6, with close losses to the Texans, Rams, and Chiefs (twice) and wins over the Chargers, Steelers, and Seahawks. The schedule has gotten easier recently, but they’re not the same team as they were earlier in the season, with key players like right guard Ron Leary, center Matt Paradis, cornerback Chris Harris, and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on injured reserve and fellow wide receiver Demaryius Thomas traded to the Texans. As a result, they’ve lost 2 of 3 and were eliminated from the playoffs last week with a home loss to the Browns.
Their schedule remains easy this week, with a trip to Oakland on deck, but the Broncos might not bring their best effort. With their season over, the Broncos could be looking forward to a much tougher game against the Chargers, a game in which they are 5.5-point home underdogs on the early line. Road favorites, which the Broncos are this week, are just 23-47 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs.
The Raiders aren’t in a good spot either, with a trip to Kansas City on deck, a game in which they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are just 22-46 ATS since 2016 before being double digit underdogs, as tough upcoming games tend to present a distraction to teams. However, this is likely the Raiders’ last game in Oakland, so I expect a strong effort from them. We’re not getting enough line value with them as 3-point underdogs to bet them confidently, but they should be the right side.
Denver Broncos 20 Oakland Raiders 19
Pick against the spread: Oakland +3