Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (7-7)
The Dolphins are 7-7, but have not played nearly as well as their record. While their 7 wins have come by a combined 38 points, their 7 losses have come by a combined 117 points, giving them a -79 point differential that ranks 29th in the NFL. That’s despite the fact that they rank tied for 4th in the NFL in turnover margin at +9. Turnover margins tend to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t necessarily be able to rely on that going forward, and they rank just 30th in first down rate differential at -5.75%.
The Dolphins have been significantly better at home than on the road, going 6-1 at home and 1-6 on the road, but home/road disparities tend to be random more than anything. Over the past 30 years, there have been 26 teams that have a home winning percentage 60% better than their road winning percentage this late in the season. Those teams are 13-13 ATS in their next home game. That’s not reason enough to bet against the Dolphins, but we also shouldn’t blindly bet them because they’ve been good at home.
That being said, we’re not getting nearly enough points with the Jaguars at +4 to take them with any confidence. While Jacksonville’s defense is by far the strongest unit in this game, their offense is by far the worst, with a ton of injuries on the offensive line and a backup caliber quarterback under center in Cody Kessler. Miami hasn’t gotten any blowout wins this season, but this is one of their easier games. I expect this to be a close game, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dolphins won with relative ease compared to their other wins.
Miami Dolphins 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 13
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +4