Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-6)
A lot of teams are dealing with tough injury situations, but the Bengals might have the worst injury situation in the entire NFL. Already missing left tackle Cordy Glenn and #1 wide receiver AJ Green to begin the season, the Bengals are also without wide receiver John Ross, backup left tackle Andre Smith, right guard John Miller, their top two edge rushers Carlos Dunlap and Carl Lawson, and starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson. With all of their absences, they are the worst team in the league outside of the Dolphins.
However, I still think we’re getting some line value with them as 4-point home underdogs against the Jaguars. Ever since Minshew Mania went to the next level during the Jaguars’ week 3 victory over the Titans on Thursday Night Football, I have thought the Jaguars are overrated. Even with Gardner Minshew outperforming expectations, the Jaguars still rank just 24th in first down rate differential and he seems to be falling back to earth in recent weeks. The Jaguars rank just 26th in my roster rankings, so they shouldn’t be favored by this many points over anyone except the Dolphins. I have this line calculated at Jacksonville -2, so we’re getting a decent amount of line value with the Bengals, even as banged up as they are. I wouldn’t recommend betting on them though.
Jacksonville Jaguars 19 Cincinnati Bengals 17
Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +4