Chicago Bears (5-6) at Detroit Lions (3-7-1)

Last week, the Lions were inexplicably favored by 3.5 points in Washington (the line got up to 5 in some places before game time), despite starting one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league in Jeff Driskel and missing several starters at other positions. The Lions predictably lost that game straight up and never really came close to covering. This week, the line has swung the other way, with the Lions going from being favored by a point at home over the Bears on the early line last week to being 6 point underdogs this week.

That’s in part due to the Lions having to turn to third string quarterback David Blough, with Driskel unable to go on a short week after injuring his hamstring. This line opened with the Lions as 3.5 point home underdogs, but that went up to 6 points when Blough was announced as the starter. I haven’t seen much of Blough, an undrafted rookie who didn’t show much in the pre-season with the Browns, but it’s likely he won’t be much of a downgrade from Driskel, who is barely an NFL caliber quarterback, so Driskel’s absence is not that significant. 

On the other hand, the Lions getting back defensive end Trey Flowers, center Frank Ragnow, and possibly defensive end Da’Shawn Hand and safety Tracy Walker are significant, as is the absence of right tackle Bobby Massie for the Bears. Even if this line was still at 3.5, we’d be getting some line value with the Lions, who I have calculated as 1-point underdogs in this game. The Bears are also in a tough spot, with a much tougher game on deck next week against the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Road favorites are just 25-55 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs, which the Bears almost definitely will be next week. They could easily overlook the Lions this week. I wouldn’t go crazy betting on a David Blough quarterbacked team, but there’s enough value at +6 for the Lions to be worth a small bet.

Chicago Bears 16 Detroit Lions 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit +6

Confidence: Medium