2019 Week 13 NFL Picks

Pick of the Week

CIN +3.5 vs. NYJ

High Confidence Picks

DAL -6.5 vs. BUF

Medium Confidence Picks

DET +6 vs. CHI

PHI -10 @ MIA

LAC -3 @ DEN

OAK +11 @ KC

MIN +3 @ SEA

Low Confidence Picks

TEN +1.5 @ IND

NE -3.5 @ HOU

TB -2.5 @ JAX

NYG +7 vs. GB

PIT +2.5 vs. CLE

ATL +7 vs. NO

No Confidence Picks

SF +6 @ BAL

WAS +10 @ CAR

LAR -3 @ ARZ

Upset Picks

CIN +155 vs. NYJ

MIN +140 @ SEA

TEN +105 @ IND

PIT +120 vs. CLE

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (2-9) at Carolina Panthers (5-6)

This was one of the toughest games of the week to decide. On one hand, the Panthers have struggled in recent weeks with Kyle Allen falling back to earth after surprisingly playing well in his first few starts of the season and, as a result, they probably shouldn’t be favored by double digits against anyone, even the Redskins. Dating back to week 7, the Panthers have a first down rate differential of -7.81%, 29th in the NFL over that time period. I still have them calculated as 7.5-point home favorites this week against one of the worst few teams in the league, but we’re getting line value with the visitors.

On the other hand, the Redskins are in a tough spot as big underdogs before being big underdogs again. It’s tough for an inferior team to keep it close against a superior team with another tough game on deck, as teams are 29-59 ATS since 2002 as underdogs of 10 or more before being underdogs of 10 or more again. The Redskins are currently 14.5-point underdogs on the early line for next week’s matchup in Green Bay with the Packers and, in a lost season, might not bring their best effort for this game with a tougher game on deck. I’m taking the Redskins for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week and a push is a strong possibility.

Carolina Panthers 20 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: None

New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

New England Patriots (10-1) at Houston Texans (7-4)

Much was made early in the season about the Patriots’ weak schedule, but their schedule has definitely gotten tougher in recent weeks and their overall opponent’s winning percentage is now a respectable 48%. Despite the tougher schedule, the Patriots still rank very highly in first down rate differential at +6.81%, only behind the 49ers and Ravens, and they only have one loss, a 17-point loss in Baltimore that looks less embarrassing every time the Ravens take the field. The Patriots’ offense is a work in progress, but their defense is legitimately dominant and they’re clearly one of the top few teams in the league overall. 

The Patriots face another opponent with a winning record this week, but the Texans are not the same team without JJ Watt on the field and he’s out for the season with a torn pectoral. Without Watt, I have the Texans just 14th in my roster rankings. I have the Patriots calculated as 5.5 point favorites, so we’re getting line value with them at just 3.5. I would need this line to fall to an even field goal before gametime for the Patriots to be worth a bet, but it seems to be trending in that direction, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I end up updating this writeup before gametime.

New England Patriots 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against the spread: New England -3.5

Confidence: Low

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

Oakland Raiders (6-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

The Raiders are 6-5 and are very much in the mix for a playoff spot, but all of the Raiders’ wins have come by 8 points or fewer, while most of their losses have been blowouts, with the exception of a 3-point loss in Houston. As a result, they have a point differential of -56 that ranks 25th in the NFL and a first down rate differential of -5.26% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Last week, they arguably hit their lowest point of the season, getting blown out in New York by the Jets in a 34-3 loss.

That being said, I actually kind of like the Raiders this week because I think they’ll view this as a much bigger game than the Chiefs will. The Chiefs already blew out the Raiders earlier this season and they have a much tougher game on deck in New England, a game in which they will almost definitely be underdogs, so they might not bring their best effort. Favorites of 10 or more are just 65-86 ATS before being underdogs since 2002. Meanwhile, the Raiders are coming off of an embarrassing loss (probably in part because they were looking forward to this matchup) and now have an opportunity to not only gain a game in the standings on the division leader, but also to make a statement to the rest of the league with a signature win.

I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet because of the Raiders’ tendency to get blown out, but 11 points gives us a good cushion and the Chiefs actually have just two wins by more than 5 points at home in the past calendar year (a 10-game span), primarily due to a very underwhelming defense (27th in the NFL in first down rate allowed at 38.01%) that is easy to get garbage time yards against. A likely more focused Raiders team should be able to keep this game close, similar to their game against the Texans earlier this season.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Oakland Raiders 27

Pick against the spread: Oakland +11

Confidence: Medium

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (10-1) at Baltimore Ravens (9-2)

The Ravens are on some kind of a run right now, winning 5 straight games by at least 14 points or more, becoming just the 6th team to do so in the past 30 years (1993 49ers, 1999 Rams, 2005 Colts, 2007 Patriots, 2009 Saints). Over that stretch, they lead the NFL in first down rate differential by a mile, with a +13.31% rate that dwarfs the second ranked 49ers +7.22% rate. The Ravens aren’t doing this against a cupcake schedule either, with 4 of their last 5 opponents currently having winning records.

What makes evaluating the Ravens tough is how deciding how much value should be put into some of their underwhelming early season performances. Prior to their current stretch, the Ravens lost games against the Browns and Chiefs that they never had a real chance to win and they won by less than a touchdown against a pair of last place teams in the Cardinals and Bengals. They had just a +2.73% first down rate differential through week 6, despite a relatively easy schedule. Their only win by more than 6 points during that stretch came week 1 against a hapless Dolphins team. 

If we include their earlier season performance into the equation, it’s hard to argue that the Ravens should be favored by 6 points over a 49ers team that would be undefeated right now if they hadn’t missed a makeable field goal in overtime against the Seahawks, but it’s very possible a switch flipped for this team after week 6 with Lamar Jackson growing more comfortable in this offense every week. If we more or less ignore how the Ravens played prior to their current 5-game run, then this line is certainly understandable, even with the 49ers leading the NFL with a +9.02% first down rate on the season. I typically don’t like to throw out early season results and only focus on a shorter stretch, especially since doing so in this case would mean throwing out 6 games to focus on 5, so I’m taking the 49ers for pick ‘em purposes, but I have no intention of betting on this.

Baltimore Ravens 24 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (8-3) at Seattle Seahawks (9-2)

Prior to last week’s bye week, the Vikings barely escaped as double digit home favorites over a Broncos team that was quarterbacked by third string Brandon Allen. That’s not as concerning as that sounds though. Not only were the Vikings missing key players like wide receiver Adam Thielen, defensive tackle Linval Joseph, safety Anthony Harris, and right guard Josh Kline, but the Vikings actually won the first down rate battle in that game by 10.32%, winning the game despite losing the turnover battle and despite allowing 4 conversions on 4th down. The Vikings had one more combined touchdown and first down in that game, even though the Broncos were able to run 17 more snaps, so I’m not worried about the underwhelming final score in that game.

Now the Vikings are healthy coming out of their bye and that comes at a perfect time, as they have a matchup with the 9-2 Seahawks this week. The Seahawks have obviously played well this season, but it’s definitely worth noting how many of their wins have been close, as teams with more blowout victories tend to do better moving forward than teams with more close victories. Of the Seahawks nine victories, just one came by more than a touchdown. 

If not for missed makeable field goals by the Rams and 49ers, the Seahawks would be just 7-4 right now and in a battle to even make the post-season. They rank 9th in point differential at +29 and just 13th in first down rate differential at +1.19%. The Vikings are significantly better in both metrics at +84 and +5.08% respectively and, entering this game relatively healthy, they have a noticeable edge in my roster rankings as well. My calculated line for this game is even, so I like the Vikings getting a full field goal.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Seattle Seahawks 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3

Confidence: Medium

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

The Titans have been significantly better offensively since switching quarterbacks from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill before their week 7 game. Through their first 6 games of the season with Mariota under center, the Titans had a 32.69% first down rate that ranked 26th in the NFL. In 5 games since switching to Tannehill, the Titans have a 42.76% first down rate that is only behind the seemingly unstoppable Ravens over that time period. This offense probably won’t be the second best in the league over the rest of the season, but Tannehill is a capable starting quarterback and they have a good supporting cast around him, so they don’t need great play from him to be a tough opponent. 

They’re especially strong on defense, finishing last season 4th in first down rate allowed at 32.77% and they rank 9th this season at 33.88%, despite key players like Jurrell Casey (2 games), Jeffery Simmons (6 games), and Jayon Brown (2 games) having missed time with injury. All three players have since returned. Relatively healthy overall, the Titans rank 9th in my roster rankings and could easily end up playing their way into a playoff spot in the unsettled and underwhelming AFC.

Unfortunately, we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Titans in the past week, as a result of their blowout victory over the Jaguars last week. Underdogs of 3.5 points a week ago on the early line in this matchup with the Colts in Indianapolis, the Titans are just 1.5-point underdogs this week. I have the Titans as the better team in this matchup, but the Colts are no pushover, entering this game 11th in first down rate differential at +2.03% and 12th in my roster rankings. I have this line calculated at even, so we’re still getting a little bit of line value with the underdog, but not enough for this game to be worth betting.

Tennessee Titans 26 Indianapolis Colts 24 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1.5

Confidence: Low