New York Giants (3-11) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

Both of these teams are 3-11 and have had pretty horrible seasons, but the Giants have been the noticeably better of these two teams, holding a significant edge in point differential -99 to -132, despite the Redskins holding a significant edge in turnover margin +2 to -15. Turnover margins tend to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so the Redskins aren’t necessarily going to win the turnover battle this week just because they have the advantage in that metric on the season. In terms of first down rate differential, the Giants have the edge at -2.02% to -6.07%. Unfortunately, we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Giants in the past week, as the Redskins were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line is now even. I have the Giants calculated as 1.5 points, so they should be the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

New York Giants 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants PK

Confidence: Low