Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

The Seahawks have gotten off to an impressive 3-0 start, but their defense hasn’t been great, ranking 23rd in first down rate allowed, primarily due to their struggles on the defensive line. Their defensive line was expected to be a weakness coming into the season, but the Seahawks’ talented secondary looked like it could make up for that and it hasn’t been quite as good as expected. Making matters worse, cornerback Quinton Dunbar will miss his second straight game with an injury, while stud safety Jamal Adams will join him for his first game sidelined, further weakening their defense.

The Seahawks have a relative easy matchup this week in Miami, but they do have to travel cross-country and Miami has the kind of offense that can move the ball relatively easily on this defense, especially in garbage time. I wouldn’t expect the Seahawks to lose this game, but the Dolphins could easily keep it relatively close or come up with a backdoor cover late. My calculated line suggests we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Seahawks as 5.5-point road favorites, but I’m not confident in them at all.

Seattle Seahawks 33 Miami Dolphins 27

Pick against the spread: Seattle -5.5

Confidence: None