Detroit Lions (5-8) at Tennessee Titans (9-4)
This line has finally posted, favoring the Titans by 9 points at home over the Lions, with Matt Stafford expected to play through a rib injury. If Stafford was healthy and not at risk of an in-game setback, I would have been all over the Lions this week. For one, they’re in a better spot than the Titans, who have to turn around and play a much tougher game against the Packers next week. Favorites cover at just a 44.0% rate all-time when facing a team with a winning percentage less than 40% before facing a team with a winning percentage at least 30% higher than their current opponent.
The Lions’ defense has been horrendous this season, ranking dead last in first down rate allowed over expected at +4.43%, but the Titans haven’t been much better, ranking 28th at +2.47%, and defensive performance is much more inconsistent week-to-week than offensive performance. The Titans obviously have the edge on offense, which they do over most teams, as they are one of the top teams in the league, ranking 3rd in first down rate over expected at +3.10%, but the Lions aren’t too far behind, ranking 8th at +1.73%.
If Stafford was healthy, the Lions absolutely could have kept this shootout close and covered this spread. However, with him being less than 100% and possibly significantly less than 100%, it’s a much riskier play. In fact, if the Titans get cornerback Adoree Jackson back this week and guard Rodger Saffold plays through his questionable tag, I’m going to flip this pick to the Titans. For now, I’m taking the Lions for pick ‘em purposes, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.
Update: Saffold and Jackson are both playing, so I am switching my pick to Tennessee. I’m actually disappointed that Stafford won’t be missing this game because I would have loved to bet on the Titans if backup Chase Daniel was starting. This is as healthy as the Titans have been in a while, while the Lions are very banged up on both sides of the ball. For reference, my calculated line is currently Tennessee -10, but it would have been Tennessee -16 with Daniel under center.
Tennessee Titans 34 Detroit Lions 24
Pick against the spread: Tennessee -9