Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)
These two teams are very similar. Both teams are worse than their record suggests in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, with the Titans ranking 15th at +0.57% and the Packers ranking 16th at +0.37%, but both teams have great offenses and primarily have issues on defense, which is the much more inconsistent side of the ball week-to-week. The chances that these two teams continue dominating on offense and improve on defense are much better than the chances of a team with a high ranked defense and a low ranked offense continuing to dominate on defense and improving on offense. On top of that, both teams rank much higher in my roster rankings than they do in schedule adjusted first down rate differential, both among the top teams in the league.
Despite the similarities of these two teams, the Packers are still favored by 3.5 points at home, even without the benefit of any fans in the stadium. The Packers have a slight edge in this game and have nominal homefield advantage, but they shouldn’t be favored by more than 1.5 points, so we’re getting significant line value at +3.5, especially since 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or less, including 1 in 6 games decided by exactly 3 points. This is only a small bet for now, but if the Packers end up being without talented center Corey Linsley for the 4th straight week and the line stays put, I will boost this to a high confidence pick.
Green Bay Packers 31 Tennessee Titans 30
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5