Detroit Lions (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

The Packers had the most disappointing week one performance in the league, losing 38-3 as 3.5-point favorites against the Saints. The Packers aren’t as good as a year ago, especially with key players like David Bakhtiari and Za’Darius Smith out of the lineup, but the Saints were also banged up, missing key players like Michael Thomas, David Onyemata, and Will Lutz, after an off-season where they lost other key players, and they were playing a home game on a neutral field and not being home for an extended period of time because of Hurricane Ida.

I’m not sure what to make of the Packers’ huge loss last week, but I don’t expect them to be anywhere near that bad the rest of the season, even if they aren’t as good as they were a year ago, and they’ve also typically bounced back well after a loss, as they are 39-21 ATS after a loss with Aaron Rodgers under center. Memorably, the Packers lost in blowout fashion in Tampa Bay last year, before bouncing back in a big way against a significantly interior Texans team the following week.

The Packers should be able to do a similar thing this time, especially since they’ll be at home, where they are 44-22 ATS in games Aaron Rodgers starts and finishes with fans in attendance, and facing an even worse team in the Detroit Lions. The Lions somehow came back from down 28 to almost win against the 49ers last week, but they needed a pair of two point conversions, an onside kick recovery, a takeaway, and for the banged up 49ers to more or less take their foot off the gas on defense with a big lead. 

The Lions are still one of the worst teams in the league and I don’t expect the Packers to take their foot off the gas, needing to make a statement after an embarrassing loss. My calculated line is Green Bay -14, even before taking into account their incredible homefield advantage and how well they typically bounce back from a loss, so I’m pretty confident even giving 11.5 points with the Packers. This one is unlikely to be close.

Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -11.5

Confidence: High