Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

This game is tough to project because we don’t know how effective Carson Wentz is going to be, playing through two sprained ankles, and he technically isn’t even a lock to start, as he could still be ruled out pre-game in favor of either Nick Eason and/or Brett Hundley, which would be an obvious downgrade. Wentz is also a strong candidate for an in game setback even if he does start. My calculated line with Wentz being factored in as heavily limited still has the Titans as only 4 point favorites, giving us line value with the Colts at 5.5, but that’s more of a fade of the Titans than anything, as they are an overrated team.

The Titans won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while leading the league with a +11 turnover margin, which are both unsustainable long-term. They drew a lot of attention in the off-season for their addition of Julio Jones, but he is on the decline and might not be an upgrade on free agent departure Corey Davis, while the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and an aging offensive line affect this offense in a negative fashion. 

They were exposed in a week one blowout loss to the Cardinals and, while they bounced back with an overtime win in Seattle, they still have the 6th worst point differential in the league through 2 games. I’m taking the Colts, who are also in a good spot because 0-2 teams that made the post-season a year ago tend to cover at an above average rate in week 3, but it’s hard to take them confidently given the uncertainty around Wentz’s health.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +5.5

Confidence: Low

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