Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
The Cowboys have had a tough start to their season, going on the road to the Buccaneers and Chargers. The Cowboys split those games to go 1-1 and now they return home to be favored by 3.5 points over the Eagles, but this could be a let down spot for them, as teams tend to struggle in week 3 home openers, covering at just a 33.3% rate in a week 3 home opener over the past thirty seasons. I’m not entirely sure why that is, but it does make some sense that teams would be tired after back-to-back home games to start the season and then relax a little in their home opener, leading to relative struggles.
Unfortunately, we’re not getting enough line value with the Eagles to bet them confidently. They’ve gotten off to a surprisingly strong start, but they’ve lost a trio of key players in the past week, with left tackle Jordan Mailata, right guard Brandon Brooks, and defensive end Brandon Graham all being placed on injured reserve. My calculated line has the Cowboys favored by 5.5 points given all of the Eagles injuries, so, while I am still taking the Eagles, this is a no confidence pick at +3.5.
Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3.5