Atlanta Falcons (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-5)
This is one of the toughest games of the week from a spread standpoint, with the Falcons favored by 2 points. Not only does my calculated line of Atlanta -1 not give us any real line value with either side, but the Dolphins have three key players that are legitimately questionable, with wide receiver Devante Parker and their two best cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones all seemingly gametime calls, after being significantly limited in practice this week.
The Dolphins have one of the worst rosters in the league, have the 2nd worst point differential in the league (-78), and could easily be 0-6 if not for the Patriots losing a pair of fumbles in a 1-point Miami victory, so the absence of up to three above average or better starters would be significant. If all three are active, I will probably be on the Dolphins, but I am taking the Falcons for now and depending on the status of all three of the aforementioned players, it’s possible I could like the Falcons more than a little bit.
Update: Parker is out, but Howard and Jones will both play. I will leave this as a no confidence pick in favor of the Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons 23 Miami Dolphins 20
Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2