New York Jets (1-4) at New England Patriots (2-4)

The Patriots are just 2-4, but they’ve had some tough luck, as three of their four losses have come by 1 point, 2 points, and in overtime, which is about as close as losses get, including near wins against the Buccaneers and Cowboys, who are both high level teams and a combined 10-2. Their schedule hasn’t been that tough and their wins have come against the worst teams in the league in the Jets and Texans, but they beat the Jets by 19 in New York already, while their close win over the Texans came in a game in which the Patriots were missing almost all of their starting offensive linemen and still won the first down rate battle by 8.67%. 

The Patriots now host the Jets again in New England and, as 7-point favorites, whether or not they cover this spread and win by multiple scores again is likely to come down to how healthy their offensive line is. They got stud left guard Michael Onwenu back last week, which made a big difference in their close loss to the Cowboys, while left tackle Isaiah Wynn and right guard Shaq Mason could both possibly return this week, which would also be a big boost.

If both play, they should be able to win by multiple scores against a team they had no problem with earlier this season and I would like bet them if the line remained at seven, but if one of them is out, that becomes a lot harder, especially with the Patriots in a tough spot with a trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers up next on the schedule. Favorites of 7+ cover at just a 42.7% rate all-time before facing a team with a winning percentage that is over 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, which is the case here with the Chargers being 4-2. If both Mason and Wynn out, I would still take the Patriots, but I would drop all confidence. I’m leaving this as low confidence for now, but there may be an injury update tomorrow.

Update: The Patriots will have both Isaiah Wynn and more importantly Shaq Mason active and the line remains at seven, so I am putting a bet on the Patriots this week. I don’t expect this one to be close.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: Medium