Tennessee Titans (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-1)
A week ago, this line favored the Rams by 4.5 on the early line, but the line has since shifted to 7.5 points. Normally I like to fade significant week to week line movements like this, as they tend to be an overreaction to a single week or play, but, given the circumstances, that movement seems warranted, as the Titans lost feature back Derrick Henry for an extended period of time with an injury, while the Rams added talented edge defender Von Miller from the Broncos in a trade.
We are getting a little bit of line value with the Titans, as the Rams have been a little overrated in recent weeks and my calculated line has the Titans at +7, but there is too much injury uncertainty on both sides to take either side confidently right now. The Rams will get left tackle Andrew Whitworth back from a one-game absence this week, but their newest addition Von Miller is not a lock to play with an injury of his own, while quarterback Matt Stafford and starting wide receiver Robert Woods didn’t practice all week. Stafford is expected to play, but may not be 100%, while Woods seems legitimately questionable and would likely be limited if he did play.
On the Titans’ side, they’ll get starting wide receiver Julio Jones back this week, but they could be without fellow starting wide receiver AJ Brown, while left tackle Taylor Lewan is questionable to return from a two-game absence. With key players truly questionable on both sides (Miller and Woods for the Rams and Lewan and Brown for the Titans) it’s hard to pick either side confidently and my final pick will almost definitely come down to who has the better final injury report. Either way, I don’t see myself betting this game unless the final injury report is really skewed in favor of one team or another and the line doesn’t move. I’m taking the Titans now for a no confidence pick, but I will almost definitely be doing an update on this before gametime.
Update: Brown and Woods are both expected to play, but we don’t have confirmation on Lewan and Miller yet. If Miller plays and Lewan doesn’t, I may change this pick to the Rams, but it would be a no confidence pick either way.
Los Angeles Rams 31 Tennessee Titans 24
Pick against the spread: Tennessee +7.5