Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at New York Giants (3-7)
I have thought the Eagles are a very underrated team in recent weeks and, despite back-to-back blowout victories and three blowout victories in their past four games, I think they remain a little underrated. The Eagles are just 5-6, but their +37 point differential is tied for 9th in the NFL, despite the fact that they have faced a relatively tough schedule, with all six of their losses coming against teams with a .500 or better record.
In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Eagles rank 8th, 15th, 10th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively and 9th in mixed efficiency. They are also arguably better on offense than their rank suggests, given how much better they have played since getting their two talented starting offensive tackles back from multi-game absences earlier in the season. Even at 5-6, the Eagles are in good position to make a run and grab a wild card spot in the NFC, as they are only a half game out of a playoff spot currently and their schedule gets a lot easier from here on out.
Unfortunately, even though they are underrated, we aren’t getting good line value with the Eagles, as their opponents, the New York Giants, are underrated as well. The Giants are just 3-7 and everyone saw them be largely non-competitive against the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football last week, but the Buccaneers are arguably the best team in the league, so there isn’t much shame in that loss, and the Giants could easily have a couple more wins, as three of their losses came by three points or fewer, with none of their wins coming by that small of a margin.
The combination of the Giants’ big loss in Tampa Bay and the Eagles’ big win over the Saints pushed this line off of favoring the Eagles by a field goal on the early line last week to now favoring them by 3.5 points, so another loss by the Giants by 3 points or fewer would cover this spread. The Eagles have beaten all four teams they have faced that have a losing record by an average of 19.5 points per game and my calculated line still has the Eagles favored by 5 points, but four and five aren’t really key numbers, so that isn’t much line value at all. I am taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but there isn’t nearly enough value here to take them with any sort of confidence.
Philadelphia Eagles 26 New York Giants 21
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3.5