Seattle Seahawks (5-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
The Rams were the third team to have a game rescheduled because of COVID this week. They actually had more cases than Washington or Cleveland at one point, knocking out about half of their roster, but it never affected their quarterback room and, overall, they had less significant absences than the other two teams whose games were rescheduled. Rescheduling this game for a couple days later allowed the Rams to get edge defender Von Miller back and, while they will still be without top safety Jordan Fuller and stud right tackle Rob Havenstein, they will get back top cornerback Jalen Ramsey and talented center Brian Allen, who both missed last week’s win over the Cardinals and are probably more impactful losses.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are arguably more impacted by COVID absences then their opponents. They don’t have as many positive cases overall as the Rams, but will be without top cornerback DJ Reed, starting right tackle Brandon Shell, talented wide receiver Tyler Lockett, and starting running back Alex Collins, so they are arguably missing more impactful players than the Rams will be, as many of the Rams positives are players that don’t make much of an impactful.
This Seahawks team is still better than their record, now that quarterback Russell Wilson is back to 100% and leading a more effective offense, to complement their 21st ranked schedule adjusted defensive efficiency and their 5th ranked special teams efficiency, but I still have the Rams calculated as 7.5-point favorites in this game, so we’re getting some line value with them as touchdown favorites. The Rams rank 6th in schedule adjusted mixed efficiency and, even not quite at 100%, they are still one of the top teams in the league. It’s not nearly enough value to bet on the Rams, especially given all of the uncertainty in this game, but the Rams are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.
Los Angeles Rams 27 Seattle Seahawks 19
Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7