Washington Commanders (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys’ season seemed over in week 1, when Dak Prescott suffered a multi-week injury in a blowout loss at home to the Buccaneers, but they’ve won back-to-back games with backup quarterback Mike White and, while he might not continue to play quite as well as he has been, he has shown himself to at least be a solid backup and the Cowboys are getting healthier around in other spots on this roster, with wide receiver Michael Gallup, tight end Dalton Schultz, left guard Connor McGovern, and safety Jayron Kearse all expected to play this week after missing starts in the first three games of the season.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting much line value with the Cowboys as favorites of a field goal at home against the Commanders, as the public isn’t afraid to back the Cowboys even with a backup quarterback. My calculated line suggests the healthier Cowboys are more likely than not to cover a three point spread, but only by a small amount, so this is a no confidence pick and there is a strong likelihood of a push, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Washington Commanders 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: None