Houston Texans (0-3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)

Last week, I said the Jaguars were overrated as 6.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia and this week I think they are overrated as 7-point home favorites against the Texans. The Jaguars jumped out to a 2-1 start to this season, but they caught the Chargers and Colts when they were missing key players with injuries and lost to the Commanders, who are otherwise winless. They also have a roster that, while not as bad as a year ago, is still middling at best and, as a result, they don’t deserve to be favored by this many points against a Texans team that is also more competitive than a year ago, even if they don’t have their first win yet. My calculated line has the Jaguars favored by just 4.5, so we’re getting good line value with the visitors. There isn’t quite enough here for the Texans to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +7

Confidence: Low