Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

The Saints are just 1-3, but they’ve faced a relatively tough schedule and have the league’s worst turnover margin at -7, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which takes into account strength of schedule and is based on yards per play and first down rate, two stats are much more predictive week-to-week, the Saints rank 11th on the season. That suggests they have a good chance to bounce back going forward. They’re also healthier this week, with safety Marcus Maye, guard Andrus Peat, and Alvin Kamara all returning after missing last week’s game.

However, the Saints are still missing top wide receiver Michael Thomas and are starting backup quarterback Andy Dalton, which is a concern even if he is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. Even with Dalton starting and Thomas out, I thought we might still get some good line value with the Saints this week, but they are 5-point favorites against the Seahawks. My calculated line has them as 6.5-point favorites, so we are getting some line value with them, but it’s not a significant amount and it’s hard to get excited about betting the Saints at this number without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver. The Saints are my pick, but for pick ’em purposes only.

New Orleans Saints 27 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -5

Confidence: Low