Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’re also without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

The Cardinals have started 2-2, but they have a negative point differential at -15, despite a +4 turnover margin, third best in the league. In terms of overall efficiency, the Cardinals rank 30th, six points below average. My roster rankings don’t have them quite as bad, but they are still a couple points below average. Ordinarily, the Eagles would be an intriguing bet here, even as 5-point favorites on the road, because they are legitimately one of the best teams in the league, but they’ll be without one of their most important players, left tackle Jordan Mailata, and also they could overlook the Cardinals a little bit, with a more important divisional matchup with the Cowboys on deck next week. I’m still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re not worth betting.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -5

Confidence: Low