Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)

The Chiefs are 3-1 and could easily be 4-0 if not for missed makeable kicks and turnovers in a 3-point loss to the Colts, a game in which the Chiefs won the first down rate battle by 5.50% and the yards per play battle by 1.50, which are both significantly more predictive than turnovers or special teams. In terms of overall efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play, the Chiefs rank 5th and my roster rankings have them as the most talented team in the league overall.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are 1-3, but all four of their games could have gone either way and their roster is middling overall. Despite that, they are only 7-point underdogs on the road in Kansas City, so we’re getting some line value with the Chiefs, who I have as 8 points better than the Raiders and 10-point home favorites on my calculated line. That being said, the Chiefs are in a bad spot this week, with a much tougher game against the Bills on deck, so I can’t be confident betting them. They are the right side for pick ‘em purposes though.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Las Vegas Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Low