Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

Coming into the season, I expected the Vikings to be better than a year ago and make the post-season, with better health on defense and better coaching on offense. So far, they are 4-1, with their only loss coming to the undefeated Eagles, but they are still underrated, as they rank 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency and are still just 3-point favorites on the road against a Dolphins team that is starting a 3rd string, 7th round rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson, with Tua Tagovailoa out and Teddy Bridgewater expected to be the backup if active. My calculated line has the Vikings favored by 6.5, so they’re worth a big bet at 3, as they are likely to at least push at that number.

Minnesota Vikings 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: High