Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-3)

The Saints are just 2-3, but the turnover margin has been a big problem for them, as they have the worst in the league at -8, which, fortunately for them, is not predictive. In terms of schedule adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are much more predictive, the Saints rank 19th and 7th respectively, so they should be better going forward than their 2-3 record suggests. The Bengals are also better than their record, with their 3 losses coming by a combined 8 points, but they are favored by 2.5 points on the road in this game, even though they are only a half point better than the Saints in schedule adjusted efficiency. 

The Saints do have some significant injuries, with top wide receiver Michael Thomas and top cornerback Marshon Lattimore both out, which is enough for me to not bet the Saints against the spread unless we’re getting a full field goal, but the Bengals still only rank one point higher in my roster rankings, so we’re getting at least some line value with the Saints, who should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. The money line is also a good value at +130.

Update: +3s are showing up today, so I am going to lock in that bet.

New Orleans Saints 23 Cincinnati Bengals 21 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: Medium