Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)

Earlier in the week, the Browns at +6.5 seemed like an intriguing bet in this game, as the Ravens are in a tough spot with a game against the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football on deck, with favorites covering at just a 42.6% rate all-time before Thursday Night Football. However, since earlier this week, the injury news has been in Baltimore’s favor, with the Browns ruling out one of their most important players, stud right guard Wyatt Teller, and the Ravens possibly getting back wide receiver Rashod Bateman and edge defender Justin Houston, a pair of key re-additions. 

It might be unlikely that Bateman and Houston both play, but it’s unlikely at least one of them returns and, with Teller out, if one of those two players plays, my calculated line has the Ravens favored by a touchdown, so we’re not getting any line value with the Browns anymore. I’ll still take the Browns for pick ‘em purposes because the Ravens are getting an insignificant amount of line value and are in a bad spot, but if Bateman and Houston both play, I might flip my pick to Baltimore. That’s how close this one is in my opinion. Either way, this would be a no confidence pick.

Update: Bateman and Houston are both playing, so I am switching to the Ravens, who are healthier than they’ve been for most of the season and are facing a Browns team missing one of their best players in Wyatt Teller.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: None