Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
The Eagles are the league’s last remaining undefeated team, but they’ve been very reliant on the turnover margin, leading the league by far with a +12 turnover margin. That’s a concern because turnovers are not really predictive week-to-week and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive, the Eagles rank just 5th, ranking 13th, 7th, and 25th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. That’s still impressive, but it’s not as impressive as their record and puts them outside the top few teams in the league.
The Eagles are also in a tough spot here having to turn around again and play on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites cover at just a 42.3% rate before Thursday Night Football and the Eagles, favored by 10.5, could easily take their foot off the gas in the second half and allow a backdoor cover, even if they do manage to get a big lead. We’re not getting much line value with the Steelers, with my calculated line having them as 10 point underdogs, but that would change if TJ Watt ends up making his return this week from a 6-game absence, which seems more likely than not at this point. If that happens and this line doesn’t shift drastically, I will strongly consider a bet on the Steelers.
Philadelphia Eagles 26 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +10.5