Chicago Bears (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-2)

The Bears pulled the huge upset against the Patriots last week, but they still rank just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average, and my roster rankings have them even worse, about 6 points below average. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 5-2 despite inconsistent quarterback play, led by a defense that ranks 1st in schedule adjusted efficiency, and they should get a better game from Dak Prescott this week, in his second game back from a thumb injury that he suffered week one and that cost him 5 games.

This line is still pretty high, despite the Bears’ win last week, favoring the Cowboys by 9.5 points, but my calculated line has the Cowboys favored by even more, at 11, and the Cowboys are in a good spot as well, ahead of a bye, as home favorites of 6 points or more cover at a 63.3% rate before a bye. The Cowboys are worth at least a small bet at 9.5 and if Cowboys’ top safety Malik Hooker, who is highly questionable after not practicing all week, ends up playing and this line doesn’t move up, I will likely increase this to a high confidence pick.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas -9.5

Confidence: Medium