Houston Texans (1-6-1) at New York Giants (6-2)

The Giants are 6-2, but they haven’t played nearly as well as that suggests, coming from behind to barely win most of their victories. In terms of time leading, the Giants rank 4th worst in the NFL and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 23rd, about three points below average, in line with my roster rankings, which have them four points below average. Unfortunately, the public and the oddsmakers seem to realize the Giants are not nearly as good as their record, with the Giants favored by just 4.5 points at home against the Texans.

The Texans are arguably the worst team in the league, ranking dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, about eight points below average. My roster rankings have them slightly better than that, about six points below average, but they are still probably the worst team in the league and my calculated line actually suggests we’re getting some line value with the Giants, calculating them as 5-point favorites. This is one of my lowest confidence picks, but I’m taking the Giants for pick ‘em purposes.

New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 19

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -4.5

Confidence: None