Cleveland Browns (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3)

The Dolphins are 6-0 in games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa, but they haven’t really been blowing teams out, with their only victory by more than six points coming in a game against the Patriots in which the Dolphins won the turnover battle by three, which is not predictive week-to-week. This week, the Dolphins play a Browns team that is just 3-5, but they have been better than that record, with four of their five losses coming by three points or fewer. The Browns are also healthier coming out of their bye week, with key players Jadeveon Clowney, Denzel Ward, and Wyatt Teller all playing in the same game for the first time in a few weeks.

Unfortunately, the public and oddsmakers seem to understand that these two teams play a lot of close games, favoring the Dolphins by just 3.5 points here at home. That’s right where my calculated line is and, while my numbers suggest the Dolphins are slightly more likely to cover this spread than the Browns, this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week, as the Browns could easily force a backdoor cover late and cut this lead to a field goal or less, even if they are otherwise not that competitive throughout the game.

Miami Dolphins 31 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: None