Cleveland Browns (3-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3) in Detroit

This ends up being a neutral site game for the Bills, with their matchup against the Browns being relocated to Detroit because of a snowstorm in Buffalo. Despite that, the Bills are still favored by 7.5 points, suggesting they’re that much better than the Browns. The Bills do typically blow out their opponents, with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points across 18 wins over the past two seasons (18-10), but they haven’t been playing as well as late due to injuries on defense. Already without talented safety Micah Hyde, the Bills are also without talented edge defender Gregory Rousseau and, while they get back their other talented safety Jordan Poyer this week, they will be without stud linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. 

The Browns, meanwhile, are relatively healthy and, while they are 3-6, they have been relatively competitive in most of their losses, with four of six coming by three points or fewer. My calculated line still gives us some line value with the Bills as 8-point neutral site favorites, but that’s barely anything and the Browns are in the better spot as well, with the Bills having to play again in a few days on Thanksgiving, with favorites covering at just a 44.6% rate all-time before a Thursday Night Football game. This is just a low confidence pick, but I like the Browns for pick ’em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 30 Cleveland Browns 24

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: Low