Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-6)

Both of these teams are 3-6 and have serious injury problems, among the worst in the league. The Rams will get quarterback Matt Stafford back from a one-game absence with a concussion, but he’ll return to a team that lost arguably the best wide receiver in the league in Cooper Kupp to injury and that is without a trio of starting offensive linemen, left tackle Joe Noteboom, left guard David Edwards, and center Brian Allen from what was already a shaky offensive line entering the season. The Rams’ defense still remains an above average unit, but the absence of their best offensive player and three key offensive linemen has left their offense well below average.

The Saints, meanwhile, have injury problems on both sides of the ball. On offense, they will be without top wide receiver Michael Thomas, starting left tackle James Hurst, and starting center Erik McCoy, while their defense will be without top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, talented starting linebacker Pete Werner, and their stud edge defender duo of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. The Saints have a one-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency and a one-point edge in my roster rankings, but they’re also field goal favorites at home, which is about what they should be. My numbers suggest the Saints are slightly more likely to cover at this number, but this is a no confidence pick and a push is a likely outcome, given that one in six games are decided by exactly three points.

New Orleans Saints 20 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: None