New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

A week ago on the early line, the Cowboys were 6.5 point favorites, but this line has since shifted all the way to 10, as a result of the Cowboys’ blowout win in Minnesota and the Giants’ blowout loss in Detroit. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like this because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but in this case I think the line movement is justified, not only because of the results of last week, but also because the Giants are now missing their two best cornerbacks, Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau, as well as several offensive linemen. On top of that, I think the line was too low at 6.5 to begin with.

The Giants are 7-3, but that’s a very misleading record. In addition to their blowout loss to a sub .500 Lions team last week, their second multi-score loss of the season, the Giants’ seven wins have all come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 4-7. As a result, the Giants have just a +1 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule. The Cowboys have the same record at 7-3, but they have a +84 point differential (2nd best in the NFL), despite facing a tougher schedule. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cowboys rank 7th, 4.5 points above average, while the Giants rank 27th, 4.5 points below average.

That’s despite the fact that the Cowboys were without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for five games earlier this season. He has since returned and the Cowboys are now relatively healthy overall, while the Giants are going the other way injury wise, leading to the Cowboys having a 12-point edge in my roster rankings. Given that, we’re actually still getting some line value with the Cowboys, as my calculated line favors them by 14 points. I wouldn’t bet on the Cowboys at 10, but if this line drops down to 9.5, they would be worth betting at that number and, either way, the Cowboys are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Dallas -10

Confidence: Low