Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)

The Ravens have three losses, but all came by four points or fewer and all came after blowing 4th quarter leads, with the Ravens leading the league in percentage of time leading per game. In terms of point differential, the Ravens rank 7th at +49 and in schedule adjusted efficiency they rank 3rd, about seven points above average. Also healthier now than they were earlier in the year, I consider the Ravens among the best teams in the league and a true Super Bowl contender, which isn’t the consensus opinion of them, so I think they’re a little underrated, even at 7-3.

The Jaguars have been competitive in most of their games this season, but all of their losses have come by more than four points, which would have covered this spread. They have a positive point differential at +11 and a positive schedule adjusted efficiency, about a point above average (13th in the NFL), but they are five points below average in my roster rankings, suggesting they’ve overachieved their talent level and could easily regress going forward. The Ravens should be able to win this game with relative ease and my calculated line has them favored by a full touchdown, so they’re worth a bet here at 3.5.

Update: This line has dropped to 3, so I am increasing the confidence of this bet.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -3

Confidence: Medium